Red Bull to lock in 2026 line-ups on Tuesday — with a likely rookie promotion and one big casualty
Red Bull’s 2026 driver puzzle is about to click into place. Both the senior team and Racing Bulls are set to confirm their line-ups on Tuesday, and the shape of the grid around Milton Keynes and Faenza looks set to shift again — with one familiar name poised to lose out.
At the sharp end, nothing changes. Max Verstappen remains the pillar of Red Bull Racing’s 2026 project, a decade on from his debut with the team and with the next rules era looming. The intrigue, as ever, is over the seat alongside him.
Yuki Tsunoda’s form has been the linchpin of that discussion. The Japanese driver has flashed speed but, across the season, hasn’t consistently delivered the points haul or strategic support Red Bull want in a two-car title fight. Internally, the needle appears to have moved. Multiple paddock sources suggest Tsunoda is likely to miss out on the senior seat for 2026, bringing a combative four-year Red Bull chapter to a crossroads.
If Tsunoda steps aside, the beneficiary is expected to be Isack Hadjar. The French rookie has done the most unfashionable thing in modern F1: he’s let his driving do the talking. Breakout performances, capped by a maiden podium at Zandvoort and a growing presence in the top 10, have made him hard to ignore. Helmut Marko has been effusive for months — praising Hadjar’s clean execution, mental steel and refusal to blame the car — but the days of unilateral calls are gone. Any promotion has been filtered through Oliver Mintzlaff and team boss Laurent Mekies, whose steadier hand has defined Red Bull’s recent driver moves.
The weekend body language was telling. Asked in Qatar whether decisions had been made, Tsunoda insisted nothing was signed. Hadjar, grinning, said he’d been given a hint about where he’s heading. Connect the dots.
The knock-on at Racing Bulls looks just as significant. With a spot opening in Faenza, Arvid Lindblad is widely tipped to step up. Red Bull flagged him early, long before he became Formula 2’s youngest race winner in Jeddah and backed it up with a feature victory in Spain. He’s since sampled the older AlphaTauri AT04 and logged assured FP1 mileage for the senior team — including a quietly eye-catching run in Mexico where his pace and feedback drew approving nods. Marko called him “a man for the future.” The future appears to be arriving on Tuesday.
Liam Lawson, meanwhile, is expected to stay put at Racing Bulls. The Kiwi’s first full campaign has been stop-start on paper but sturdier in substance. He bit hard when given a shot in the big team, got shuffled back when confidence wobbled, and has since rebuilt with calm, tidy Sundays in a car that hasn’t always flattered. As a benchmark for Lindblad, Lawson is exactly the kind of grounded, engineer’s driver a rookie wants alongside him.
There are caveats, because of course there are. Red Bull like optionality. A straight rollover of the current status quo remains a live, if less likely, option. And there’s a non-zero chance of a curveball: Ayumu Iwasa has just banked a Super Formula title in Japan, carries Honda ties, and has completed mileage with both Red Bull teams this year in testing and FP1 runs. If the hierarchy wanted a ready-made, low-drama plug-in, he fits the bill.
What doesn’t seem on the table, despite summertime rumour mill churn, is a late swing for Alex Dunne. Super Licence uncertainties have cooled that conversation, even if channels remain open for the longer term.
All of this lands with the 2026 reset looming large. New power units, a new aero rulebook, and a factory in Milton Keynes building a works engine with Ford mean fit matters as much as speed. Red Bull want drivers who thrive on limited running, pick up circuits fast and don’t drag engineers down rabbit holes. That’s why Hadjar’s no-fuss approach resonates. It’s why Lindblad’s FP1 composure popped. And it’s why Lawson’s quiet accumulation of experience is valued.
Tsunoda’s situation is the human wrinkle. He’s grown up inside the Red Bull system — from his AlphaTauri debut through the Racing Bulls rebrand — and at his best he’s electric. But Red Bull measure relentlessly, and if Tuesday’s announcement confirms the mood music, he’ll be the odd man out. Whether that means a role outside the race seats or a clean break is the next subplot to watch.
So, pencil it in:
– Red Bull Racing: Verstappen plus Hadjar, pending the final stamp.
– Racing Bulls: Lawson partnered by Lindblad, youth with a reference point.
– Wild cards: slim chance of Iwasa; outside chance of a status-quo hold.
For a company that built an empire on bold calls, this would be a tidy, internally coherent reshuffle. One star secured, one rookie rewarded, one academy jewel accelerated — and a sister team built to teach, not just to survive. Now we wait for Tuesday to remove the “likely” from the sentence.
