McLaren walks a 2016 tightrope in Abu Dhabi — with Verstappen right in the middle
Two papaya cars, one championship to settle, and the ghost of 2016 lurking in the mirrors. McLaren arrives in Abu Dhabi with Lando Norris leading the standings, Oscar Piastri still in range, and Max Verstappen wedged awkwardly between them on points. It’s the kind of finale that makes team principals sweat and strategists earn their air miles.
You don’t have to dig far for the comparison. Nine years ago, Lewis Hamilton slowed the pace in Abu Dhabi to box Nico Rosberg into the chasing pack, all in a last-ditch attempt to swing the title his way. The radio told the story: the pit wall urged him to speed up, he declined, and Rosberg did just enough to keep his nose clean and leave with the crown. Hamilton won the race; Rosberg won the war.
Abu Dhabi has a habit of forcing that sort of ruthlessness into the light. Title deciders concentrate risk. The lead car controls tempo, the trailing car lives with it, and the field behind starts to lick its lips. That’s where the 2025 version diverges from the old script: McLaren’s fight isn’t in a vacuum. It has Verstappen sitting between its two drivers in the championship—a third body in the ring who doesn’t care which McLaren wins, only that he does.
Here’s the lay of the land: Norris starts the weekend with a 12-point cushion over Verstappen, and Piastri is 16 points behind his teammate. The short version? Norris holds the cards, Verstappen is close enough to snatch, Piastri needs a near-perfect Sunday and just enough chaos. The messy version? Piastri could win the race on merit and, depending on where Norris and Verstappen land, end up the guy who indirectly hands the title to a Red Bull. That’s the nightmare outcome for Woking.
Which is why the team dynamic matters more than ever. Piastri has been notably pragmatic throughout this campaign, happy to play the long game when the bigger picture required it. Sky Sports F1’s David Croft spelled it out earlier in the year: Piastri understands there will be days to help the cause and days he’ll need the favor returned. It’s a team sport, even if the trophy has only one name on it.
Croft even floated the most Abu Dhabi of scenarios: Oscar wins the race, Norris trails in a controlled window, Verstappen gets parked in the dirty air and denied the points swing he needs. Call it the modern echo of 2016—back it up when it counts, no more than you have to, and keep the silverware internal. It’s not romantic, but on weekends like this, style points are worthless.
None of this means the orange garage will choreograph it to the lap. Norris won’t want charity, and Piastri isn’t built for pantomime. But if the strategy boards light up in the final stint and the numbers say “protect the title,” don’t expect sentimentality. McLaren’s made the right sort of noise lately—competition first, but the championship above all—and they’ll know Verstappen is the shark in the water. Give him clean air or a soft gap, and he’s ruthless enough to take the whole thing apart.
The other variable is Yas Marina itself. It’s no longer the procession it once was, but control at the front still buys leverage. Manage the pace, keep the DRS trains in check, and you can force those behind into awkward tire windows and overheating fronts. That’s the art Hamilton practiced in 2016. It failed then because Rosberg didn’t flinch. If McLaren ends up running first and second on Sunday, it’ll be the same test, just with a Red Bull prowling for scraps.
So what happens? If you’re drawing up the sensible script, it looks something like this: Piastri goes for the win if it’s on, Norris shadows the move, and Verstappen is kept at arm’s length—close enough to be a threat, not close enough to matter. If Verstappen undercuts into play, you pivot, because he’s the one opponent McLaren can’t control via a stern chat on the cool-down lap.
Would McLaren accept a touch of gamesmanship to ice the title? Absolutely. Should it? Also yes. Whether it’s quiet pace management, a well-timed undercut call, or a calculated “don’t fight” instruction, the job is to keep the trophy in-house. You don’t get many shots like this—two cars in the title frame at the finale—and no one in papaya will want to look at the photos on Monday and see a Red Bull lifting the big one because they were too polite.
The romance would be a straight fight between teammates. The reality is a championship that might hinge on who’s willing to be the grown-up at 300 km/h. If Piastri wins the race and Norris lifts the title, McLaren’s season will have its neat ending. If Verstappen finds daylight, history may rhyme—but with a very different punchline.
