Fernando Alonso has never been shy about calling it as he sees it, and his latest read on the driver market cuts straight to the heart of Red Bull’s current dilemma: in his view, the team is holding Max Verstappen back.
That’s not just an eye-catching line from a fellow world champion. It lands at a moment when the 2026 silly season is already humming, and when Verstappen’s next move — or decision not to move — has the potential to freeze or unstick half the grid. The same is true of Alonso, who is still weighing up whether his next chapter is another F1 contract or something entirely different.
The most obvious pressure point is Verstappen’s contract situation. He’s signed through to the end of 2028, but there’s an exit clause understood to come into play if he’s outside the top two in the championship by the Hungarian Grand Prix. If that clause becomes live, it effectively changes the tone of every conversation: he may not be “available” in the conventional sense, but he becomes a very different kind of asset — one rival teams can legitimately pitch for without it being theatre.
Where does that leave the usual suspects? Mercedes is the door everyone keeps staring at, but it’s not wide open. Andrea Kimi Antonelli’s emergence has given Toto Wolff a genuine alternative rather than a future promise, and George Russell has been publicly relaxed about his situation, indicating he expects to remain with the team next year. In other words, even if Mercedes wants Verstappen, it would have to make a clean, ruthless decision somewhere else — and that isn’t a move you make unless you’re absolutely convinced the prize is worth the collateral.
McLaren remains the other constant whisper in the paddock. The Lambiase reunion angle writes itself, but the harder question is whether it makes sense in the new-regs context. McLaren is a Mercedes customer, and that relationship has its own politics; as recently as six months ago, Wolff was talking about the “enemy in the house” problem when a customer team is beating you. With Mercedes apparently keen to reduce its customer supply by one team for the next cycle, it’s fair to wonder whether McLaren would be the first name in the firing line — and whether that uncertainty is something Verstappen would willingly inherit.
Ferrari, meanwhile, looks blocked. Charles Leclerc’s extension has been done, and the team’s belief that the “real” Lewis Hamilton is still in there is currently being rewarded. It’s hard to build a credible Verstappen-to-Ferrari scenario without inventing an earthquake you can’t yet see.
All of this is why, despite the noise, the Verstappen camp’s stated preference for loyalty to Red Bull matters. If his options are narrower than the headlines suggest — and if any Mercedes deal also comes with the suggestion of a pay cut — then the “stay where you are” outcome becomes more plausible, even if Alonso and others think Red Bull is constraining him.
And Verstappen’s choice doesn’t just affect him. It essentially sets Red Bull’s entire driver plan. If he stays, the expectation is stability across both teams: Isack Hadjar’s seat is viewed as secure, and the recent chatter that Nikola Tsolov is already guaranteed a Racing Bulls drive next season is being dismissed by those closer to the situation. There’s also a noticeable cultural shift with Helmut Marko no longer in the picture; the appetite to churn through rookies at the first wobble appears to have cooled, with Liam Lawson and Arvid Lindblad both seen as performing at a level that would put them in a strong position for 2027.
If Verstappen goes, though, the shockwave is immediate. Depending on whether he lands at Mercedes or McLaren, a straightforward swap could theoretically place Russell or Oscar Piastri into a Red Bull seat. But the more intriguing subplot is Carlos Sainz — a driver who keeps cropping up whenever a top-team vacancy feels even vaguely possible.
Sainz has been clear he’ll take the coming weeks to talk through Williams’ long-term direction with James Vowles, and he’s asked his management to hold off on pushing alternative plans until the summer break. He insists his priority is staying put, yet his realistic options elsewhere are limited unless a genuine opening appears at the front. Aston Martin has been mentioned in the event Alonso departs, Audi has been floated as a long shot, but Red Bull is the one seat that could meaningfully reframe his next few years.
The irony is that Sainz has already been down this road. He’s said Red Bull “didn’t want him” two years ago after discussions, and the historical tension between the Sainz and Verstappen camps has been part of the background noise for years — something even Marko previously alluded to when referencing a “toxic” dynamic during their Toro Rosso days. But if Red Bull becomes a Verstappen-less team, that old barrier may suddenly look less relevant than it once did.
Then there’s Alonso himself, the other man holding a chunk of the market in suspense. He’s pushed back hard on what he described as “borderline abuse” in criticism aimed at Aston Martin this year, and he’s still talking about wanting to see the team win a title — whether he’s the one driving the car or playing a different role.
What makes Alonso’s situation unique is that it doesn’t read like a straightforward “which team next?” story. The bigger decision appears to be whether he stays in F1 at all. He’s spoken about wanting to be the most “complete driver,” and he’s even aired interest in the new Formula E car alongside ideas like rallying and Dakar. Flavio Briatore may fancy a reunion at Alpine, but Alonso’s next move feels less like a negotiation and more like a personal fork in the road.
If Alonso steps away, Aston Martin’s seat remains attractive on name alone, even with the current struggles. Sainz would be an obvious candidate — and so would Sergio Perez. Perez is understood to want clarity by the summer break, and his stock in the paddock has improved since returning to the grid. Williams and Aston Martin are described as his primary alternatives to staying with Cadillac, and with Perez keen to race closer to the front, he’s said to be open to moving if Cadillac’s upward momentum isn’t guaranteed. That calculation is sharpened by the likelihood of Colton Herta securing an FIA Super Licence, which would make him a serious 2027 option for Graeme Lowdon’s operation.
Alpine, for its part, looks increasingly likely to stick with Franco Colapinto after his improved performances this season. Briatore has spoken positively about his growing confidence and talent, though there are still whispers about a potential Colapinto-Williams reunion if Vowles suddenly finds himself needing a driver. Alex Dunne’s name has also been mentioned in that orbit, and reserve Luke Browning remains on the list of plausible internal options.
Further down the grid, the next wave is already being tested. Leonardo Fornaroli and Rafa Camara have logged TPC outings, and Haas is painted as the most natural destination if Ayao Komatsu decides to move on from Esteban Ocon. Fornaroli has already tested with Haas; Camara has Ferrari Driver Academy backing. Jack Doohan is also in the frame as an experienced reserve option, while Toyota-linked names like Ryo Hirakawa and Sho Tsuboi have been mentioned — albeit with the caveat that being in their early 30s doesn’t help in a market addicted to “future potential.”
For all the talk of bombshells, the paddock still suspects the boring outcome is the most likely: Verstappen stays put, Alonso gives Aston Martin at least one more go, and a lot of teams choose the safest door rather than the most glamorous one. But clauses, confidence, and a summer break deadline have a way of turning “likely” into “wrong” very quickly in Formula 1.
