Headline: Russell circles Las Vegas as Mercedes’ last, best shot in a baffling 2025
If you’re looking for where Mercedes might still land a heavy punch this season, George Russell has already circled it in red ink: Las Vegas. And the way he tells it, Sin City could be the last real chance.
Mercedes’ year has been a riddle. They’re one of the “big four,” yet the W16’s mood swings have outpaced everyone’s expectations. Russell started strongly, banking solid points early on, only for his returns to slide as the European leg exposed more of the car’s fickle side. The trajectory has turned what was shaping into a fight for the upper reaches into a scramble to hold station as the field shifts week to week.
“It’s difficult to understand the sport at the moment,” Russell admitted after Monza. “When you look at Verstappen finishing 40 seconds off the win in Hungary and then winning by 20 seconds here and by 20 seconds in Imola. I struggle to comprehend that swing in performance.”
He’s not wrong. This has been a season of extremes. McLaren’s baseline is consistently sharp, Ferrari’s Saturdays are razor-thin, and Mercedes’ peaks and troughs have been too far apart for comfort. As Russell put it, “If we finished 12 seconds behind McLaren in a normal race that’s a pretty, pretty successful race. Ferrari is strong right now and on Saturdays are really close as well. One tenth faster or one tenth slower can lead to different positions.”
That narrow window has punished Mercedes more than most. There have been bright spots, but too often the car’s been sitting just outside its operating sweet spot. Rookie Kimi Antonelli has had the hardest learning curve on European soil, while Russell’s haul there did at least keep Mercedes in the conversation. But with 2026’s reset creeping closer and resource focus inevitably tilting, the runway to extract more from 2025 is shortening by the lap.
Which is why Las Vegas looms so large. “Vegas is a bit of an obvious one for us,” Russell said. “I hope we can repeat last year’s performance.” He’s referring to Mercedes’ breakthrough there last season, when the colder night temperatures and long straights brought the car to life and delivered a commanding one-two, Russell leading home Lewis Hamilton.
There’s logic to that optimism. Vegas rewards low-drag efficiency, strong braking stability and a car that can fire tyres into the window on a chilly surface. Last year, Mercedes nailed that cocktail. If the conditions rhyme and the setup lands, they could leapfrog their usual Saturday rivals and control the race from the front rather than shadowing it from 10 to 20 seconds back.
The problem, of course, is predictability. This year hasn’t offered much. Mercedes have found time and again that what looks good on paper morphs into a chase for balance on Friday, followed by a qualifying session where a tenth swings you two rows on the grid. Even Russell’s neat Sundays often start with too much to do.
Still, there’s a sense that Vegas fits: fewer high-speed, long-load corners to stress the car’s aero balance, more emphasis on traction and deployment, and a tarmac/temperature profile that previously covered some of the W16’s more stubborn sins. If Mercedes’ engineers bring a trimmed-out package and keep the tyres in a forgiving window, this is where the team can look like itself again.
If not? The story writes itself. The focus shifts hard toward 2026, and Russell’s measured frustration will be shared on the pit wall. For now, though, Vegas remains the oasis on the horizon—one more chance for Mercedes to prove the car isn’t as perplexing as it’s looked.
“Obvious” is a strong word for a team that hates relying on ifs and maybes. But after the way this season’s twisted, it might be the clearest bet they’ve got.
