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Alonso’s Bold Bet: Aston Martin Title “Guaranteed”

Fernando Alonso doubles down: Aston Martin title fight is “more or less guaranteed”—it’s just a matter of when

Fernando Alonso doesn’t do half-measures. Not on track, not in interviews. And in Baku, he cut through the noise with a blunt assessment of Aston Martin’s trajectory: a title fight is coming. The only unknown, he says, is timing.

“I’m pretty convinced,” Alonso told Aston Martin’s official website. “The only thing is when. That’s probably my only question mark from this project.”

On paper, it’s a bold call. Aston Martin sits seventh in the 2025 Constructors’ standings, a long way from the sharp end Alonso craves. But the team has bet big on the reset arriving in 2026: a new regulations package, a Honda works power unit deal, a brand-new wind tunnel and expanded factory, and, crucially, the Adrian Newey-led design effort aimed squarely at the first year of the new rules. Alonso, contracted through 2026, sees the pieces arranged. Now they need to click.

“Aston Martin Aramco fighting for and winning the World Championship is more or less guaranteed in the future,” he said. “We have everything that is needed to fight for a World Championship. Then, to execute the job and to win it, you need some external factors as well: you need a little help from the competitors; you need a little bit of luck; you need to execute every weekend well.”

It’s classic Alonso: conviction laced with pragmatism. He’s never been shy about setting the bar, and he’s smart enough to add the caveats that keep you honest in a sport where the margins are a science and the unknowns pile up quickly under new regulations.

The 43-year-old knows the clock is ticking. He’s hinted before that a successful 2026 could be the moment to bow out—on his own terms, with the kind of fight he’s chased since his last title in 2006. “In my case, driving in the last couple of years of my career, obviously, I want to taste the success of the Aston Martin project,” he said. “But I know that everything takes a little bit of time to glue all the pieces together. And that’s my only question mark.”

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The ambition is underpinned by substance. Aston Martin’s infrastructure investment has been relentless: a modernized campus in Silverstone, new tools and talent, and that Honda partnership arriving right when the engine and chassis rulebook resets. Tie that to Newey’s oversight of the 2026 concept and you get the kind of long-game play that can move a midfield team into the title picture—if the launch hits and the first upgrade lands.

For now, though, there’s a season to finish. Seven races remain in 2025, which is where things always get awkward for teams with one eye on a looming revolution. The development tap is turned down; the engineers are buried in 2026 models; the weekends can feel like a holding pattern. Alonso gets it, but he’s not switching off.

“I would say that this year is different,” he admitted. “The second half of 2025 is different from the second half of previous years because our main focus and hopes are for next year and the new regulations. But in a way, it’s good to entertain ourselves, you know, every two weeks at a Formula 1 race. We love what we do, and we love driving. So even if your head is in 2026, your body and your lifestyle has to be in ’25 and has to be racing.”

There’s something refreshingly unvarnished about that. Alonso’s not pretending Aston Martin are one tweak away from winning this Sunday. He’s saying the team has bet the farm on 2026—and that he believes in the plan enough to stake the final stretch of his career on it. Whether that faith turns into a genuine title tilt depends on the hit rate of countless decisions being made right now in wind tunnel sessions and CFD runs you’ll never see.

The rest? That will be done the hard way—through execution, reliability, strategy calls under pressure, and a little help from fate. Alonso knows better than most what it takes to close the final 10 percent. He also knows you don’t get to the final 10 percent without building the first 90 with patience and precision.

“We have everything in place,” he said, one more time, like a driver pushing his team to keep the pace up through winter. “Let’s say, in preparation for 2026, we have everything in place.”

The declaration is audacious. The reality check is built in. And the countdown has already started.

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