Max Verstappen says his title odds are “50-50” heading into Singapore — because “either I do, or I don’t.”
That deadpan punchline landed with a grin, but it neatly sums up the mood in Red Bull’s camp after a bruising first half of 2025 turned into a late-summer reset. Two straight wins for Verstappen — Monza, then Baku — have chopped Oscar Piastri’s lead down to 69 points, and suddenly the championship arithmetic has the faintest hum again.
This is still McLaren’s fight to lose. The MCL39 set the tone in testing and, for large chunks of the season, left everyone else gasping. Red Bull’s RB21, by contrast, wandered out of its sweet spot and stayed there, catching out Verstappen and both of his team-mates at various points — first Liam Lawson, then Yuki Tsunoda after the mid-season swap. When the car bites, you don’t lean on it; when you don’t lean, you don’t win.
Monza changed the conversation. A new floor arrived, Verstappen won, and crucially he did it with two McLarens hovering in the mirrors. Baku underlined it: another victory, Piastri in the wall, Lando Norris marooned in seventh. In two weekends the gap that looked canyon-wide became merely imposing.
So, is the title on? Verstappen isn’t playing the hype game.
“Sixty-nine points is still a lot, especially with how the season’s gone,” he said. “McLaren’s been incredibly dominant — that doesn’t suddenly change. For me it’s race by race. Some tracks will suit us, some won’t. Maybe this one’s a bit worse. If we win, great. If we don’t, life goes on. I’m not stressed.”
That’s the tell. The Verstappen we’ve seen lately looks lighter, more at ease with a car that finally answers back. The RB21’s balance and predictability — two words you didn’t hear much in the spring — have edged in the right direction since the floor update. Give Verstappen a platform and he’ll do the rest. He knows it, and everyone else does too.
Singapore, though, keeps its own council. It’s one of the few grands prix Verstappen hasn’t ticked off, and Marina Bay is merciless with a car that’s even a touch out of window. High downforce, heavy braking, tricky traction zones over a bumpy surface — if you’re fighting the rear or chasing a front end, this place will find you out. And that’s before you factor in the usual sauna-like heat and the likelihood of late-afternoon storms that could flip the script between qualifying and the race.
The reigning champion isn’t pretending this is suddenly Red Bull’s playground. The target this weekend isn’t swagger; it’s confirmation.
“We’re trying to prove the direction we took is the right one, also on a track like this,” he said. “Lately it feels like the car is more competitive and more predictable. With that, you can show better things.”
There’s a broader, quieter point in there. Even when Red Bull’s car looked spiky, Verstappen’s baseline never dropped far. He admits it was harder to show in the season’s messy middle, but the standard didn’t go away. That’s partly why the paddock talks about him as a title factor despite the maths. Put simply: a free-swinging Verstappen with nothing to lose is a problem for everyone else.
None of this undoes McLaren’s body of work or Piastri’s lead. They earned their cushion. But the tone has shifted. If Red Bull emerges from Singapore with another clean, fast weekend — even without a win — that hum becomes a buzz as the calendar runs into circuits that tend to reward confidence and momentum.
For now, judge the man on his own words. No bold declarations, no bravado. Just the calm of someone who’s been here before, who knows the only number that matters is the one on the timing screen on Sunday night. Fifty-fifty? It’s a joke, sure. It’s also the attitude you take when all that’s left is to turn up, strap in, and let the rest of the season come to you.
