Hamilton left stranded as Ferrari second-guesses tyre call in Baku
Lewis Hamilton arrived at Baku with a spring in his step and a scarlet car that looked alive on Friday. He left qualifying looking more like a man who’d been mugged by indecision.
After topping FP2, Hamilton will start only 12th for the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, Ferrari’s plan to keep a fresh medium for Q3 backfiring when he never made it that far. In a session littered with six red flags — a new and slightly farcical record — Ferrari zigged when the front-runners zagged, sending Hamilton out on softs in Q2 as the field gravitated to the medium that everyone, including Hamilton, believed was the faster compound.
“The medium was just much quicker,” Hamilton said, matter-of-fact. “We knew it by a few tenths. It felt great. We should’ve run it in Q2.”
Ferrari had split its approach, Hamilton initially running the medium and Charles Leclerc set to use it for his second Q2 run — until the team blinked. With rivals stacking up on mediums and time bleeding out in a stop-start session, Ferrari kept Hamilton on the softs to preserve a set for the pole shootout that never came. Leclerc scraped through but clipped the wall in Q3 and will start 10th. Max Verstappen, business as usual, stuck the Red Bull on pole.
Hamilton pushed back on the idea that Baku’s gusts were to blame for his lap that ultimately left him short of the cut. “No,” he said, three times for emphasis. The issue was execution and, to a lesser extent, a direction on set-up that didn’t leave him as happy as he’d been on Friday. “We made a lot of progress and looked really strong,” he added. “But I was on the back foot with only two mediums, thinking of having two for Q3 — when you’ve got to get to Q3 first. Not the best execution.”
It was hard to shake the feeling that Ferrari overthought a session that punished hesitation. When a qualifying hour breaks into shards, the simple plan usually wins: get through, then worry about the rest. Hamilton was clinical in his assessment but not crestfallen. “Definitely disappointed,” he said, “but lots of positives to take.” He’s still talking about the podium on Sunday. Around here, that’s not fantasy.
This place flips races with almost comic timing. Safety Cars, virtual or otherwise, can hand you a lifeline or snatch one away before you’ve blinked. If Hamilton’s Ferrari carries the long-run pace hinted at on Friday, there’s room to play the race like chess — undercut windows, bold stops, the whole Baku bingo card. The straight is long, the braking zones are generous, and Hamilton’s not exactly shy in a wheel-to-wheel fight.
Leclerc’s miscue in Q3 will sting just as much back at Maranello. One driver out in Q2, the other scraping a top-10 start with a kiss on the wall — it’s not the sheet Ferrari expected after the promise of practice. But the car’s underlying pace looks real, and that’s the lifeline. Clean laps, a sharp pit wall, and suddenly the weekend looks salvageable.
Up front, Verstappen did what Verstappen does, insulating himself from the chaos while others tripped over red flags, tyre choices and nerves. McLaren’s Oscar Piastri wasn’t so lucky, his qualifying undone by the walls that make Baku such a tightrope.
Hamilton, though, has seen this movie enough times to know how quickly it can flip. “I’m optimistic,” he said. “Aim is to get into the top three.” It’s a big ask from 12th. But this is Baku. The straight is endless, the walls are unforgiving, and the script rarely survives the opening act. Ferrari just needs to nail the one thing it didn’t on Saturday: the basics. Then, suddenly, the rest might fall into place.
