Red Bull’s 2026 driver call is coming before Abu Dhabi — and Yuki Tsunoda’s future hangs in the balance.
Laurent Mekies says the group will lock in its plans ahead of the season finale on December 7, ending a will-they-won’t-they that’s lingered since Mexico. Asked if the decision could drag beyond Yas Marina, he was emphatic: “No, it will be before.”
The delay hasn’t calmed the noise. Inside the Red Bull camp, the expectation remains that Racing Bulls rookie Isack Hadjar — fresh from a standout first season that peaked with a maiden podium at Zandvoort — is the favorite to step up alongside Max Verstappen for 2026. That scenario would nudge Tsunoda out of the senior seat he took over after the opening rounds of 2025 and put the spotlight squarely on Red Bull’s junior team.
There, the dominoes are equally precarious. Arvid Lindblad, the highly rated F2 charger, is tipped for a 2026 promotion with Racing Bulls. If that lands, it leaves one chair and two drivers: Tsunoda and Liam Lawson. Right now, it’s Lawson who looks more exposed to falling through the cracks.
If this all feels familiar, it’s because Red Bull pushed its 2025 reveal late too, confirming Lawson as Sergio Perez’s replacement on December 19 last year. This time the messaging is different. Mekies says the delay has been intentional — not indecision but management. They wanted to keep the on-track focus through the final fly-aways, yet still give their drivers clarity before the winter quiet starts turning into 2026 testing noise.
“We don’t think the distraction is necessary now,” he explained. “We’re lucky enough to choose what we think we need to choose. The parameters are exactly what you’d expect.”
Those parameters include Tsunoda’s recent uptick. The Japanese driver has been grinding out cleaner weekends and, despite a point-less P11 in Mexico City, he offered the kind of pace comparisons that get noticed. He was within a couple of tenths of Verstappen in Q2 and matched the world champion closely across a long opening stint on mediums. Strategy and a slow stop scuppered the reward.
“Yuki is making steps forward,” Mekies said. “The other kids are making a step forward as well. We have no reason to rush, so we will take a bit more time.”
That nuance matters because the escape routes are narrowing. A reserve role with Aston Martin — an obvious fit given Tsunoda’s long-standing Honda ties ahead of the 2026 regulations — looks off the table after the team named junior Jak Crawford as third driver for next year. If Tsunoda doesn’t land in Red Bull’s main squad, his best shot is to stay put in the family.
It’s a brutally Red Bull sort of dilemma: an overflowing talent pool and a hard stop on seats. Hadjar has been the breakout act of 2025, Lindblad’s trajectory points skyward, and Lawson remains a known quantity who’s already delivered solid points when the calls go his way. Tsunoda, for his part, has argued his case on pace recently — something that wasn’t lost on the decision-makers in Mexico.
The timeline, though, is now clear. No repeat of last year’s late-night December press releases. Before Abu Dhabi, the dominos will fall. Verstappen’s teammate for 2026, the shape of Racing Bulls, and where Tsunoda lands — all of it sealed before the paddock packs up for the final time.
One more twist wouldn’t be out of character for Red Bull. But the message from the inside is simple: decisions, not distractions. And for a driver fighting to keep his place in the family, the next two weeks are everything.
