McLaren’s rocket ship wouldn’t survive status quo: Fallows says MCL39 could be Q1 fodder by end of ’26
McLaren’s MCL39 might be running the table right now, but don’t mistake that for untouchable. Dan Fallows reckons the current pacesetter would be a midfield also-ran within 18 months—if Formula 1 wasn’t tearing up the rulebook for 2026.
The former Aston Martin tech chief, now leading his own consultancy Hiperformant, argues the development curve under the current ground‑effect rules remains ferocious. In a column for RaceTeq, Fallows said that if the regulations were held over into 2026 and McLaren’s progress levelled off, “it would struggle to get out of Q1 by the end of 2026. The pace of progress is extraordinary.”
It’s a stark way to frame an odd-feeling 2025: the final act for this ruleset before F1 dives into active aerodynamics and an all-new chassis and power unit formula next year. With the horizon shifting, most teams have eased off the upgrade treadmill; McLaren has cashed in with a car that’s simply got more in hand, and weekends are often decided by who can get closest to papaya.
But Fallows’ point isn’t that the regs are done—more that the grid has chosen to be. He cites the sport’s recent churn as proof. Red Bull’s RB19 crushed 2023, yet Max Verstappen’s Abu Dhabi pole of 1:23.445 would have missed Q3 a year later. That’s how quickly a reference lap stops being a reference.
He also cautions that F1 might be swapping a sweet spot for a science experiment. “It’s worth noting how excellent the racing has been,” he wrote, pointing to multiple winners across three cars and a genuinely active midfield. Ironically, that competitiveness has been sharpened by everyone looking away from 2025 to focus on the “awesome task” of 2026.
Finding time isn’t easy under these rules, but it’s not impossible. Fallows highlights thermal management as a major battleground—keeping tyres in the window to let drivers race flat-out without rear-axle slide killing stint pace. He also points to front-end architecture—front wing, wheel bodywork, and the devices that tame front-wheel wake—as a critical, tightly policed area that still separates the best from the rest in yaw and crosswind sensitivity.
The flipside: design convergence is real. Floor tricks, sidepod sculpting—most of the field now speaks the same aerodynamic language. With just this season left before the reset, nobody’s about to junk their concept for a moonshot. You refine, you bank the gains, you move on.
So yes, the MCL39 is the class of 2025. But in F1, dominance ages fast. If the rulebook wasn’t about to change, Fallows believes even the car of the moment would be swallowed by the curve. That’s the sport: evolve or get lapped—sometimes by the calendar.
