Mexico City GP forecast: thin air, hot tarmac, and a Friday sting in the tail
Formula 1 heads from a toasty Austin to an even trickier challenge at altitude, where Mexico City’s thinner air and punishing track temperatures promise a weekend of tightrope walking. After two consecutive events flagged as FIA heat hazards, the AutĂłdromo Hermanos RodrĂguez isn’t about to offer much relief. Expect the air to be around 20% less dense than at sea level, expect cooling to be a headache, and expect teams to spend a lot of time watching temperature dashboards.
The good news? It should stay mostly dry. The bad news? When it’s not raining, the track will be baking.
Friday – FP1 and FP2
Local times: FP1 12:30; FP2 16:00 (UK: 07:30 and 23:00)
Opening practice on Friday is set fair. FP1 is forecast to be dry with an air temperature of around 23°C and a track surface sitting between 38–41°C, which is warm but manageable.
FP2 could be more lively. Air temperature bumps up to about 25°C, but the asphalt is expected to soar into the 48–51°C range, pushing tyres and cooling to their limits. There’s also a 40% chance of showers in the afternoon, so teams may juggle long-run work with a quick dash for laps before any weather arrives. If clouds build, the session could split strategies down the middle.
Saturday – FP3 and Qualifying
Local times: FP3 11:30; Qualifying 15:00 (UK: 06:30 and 22:00)
Saturday morning looks similar to Friday’s opener: dry, sunny, and useful for setup refinement. FP3 is pegged around 24°C in the air with the track in the mid-30s, potentially reaching 37°C. That’s a sweet spot for final balance tweaks before qualifying.
Come the afternoon, qualifying may flirt with weather but is still expected to be largely dry. Air temperature is set to nudge 26°C, track temperature again eyeing that 48–51°C band. There’s a slight 20% chance of rain in qualifying, just enough to keep engineers hovering over radar screens and drivers committing to banker laps early. If the sun stays out, expect a hot, greasy surface and plenty of hunting for clean, cool air in traffic.
Sunday – Race
Local time: 14:00 (UK: 20:00)
Race day brings light winds and a sunny outlook, with less than a 20% risk of showers. Air temperature should sit around 25°C, but it’s the track that will bite, likely climbing to roughly 50°C over the course of the Grand Prix. That spells thermal management from lights to flag.
At this altitude, everything breathes a little harder. Cooling efficiency takes a hit, brakes run hot, and the cars generate less downforce than they would at sea level—yet the straight-line speeds can be eye-openers. Combine that with a slick, scorching surface and you’ve got a race that rewards patience, clean air, and disciplined tyre handling. Expect teams to open up cooling where they can and keep a close eye on engine and brake temps as they thread the needle on strategy.
What it means for the paddock
– Qualifying could hinge on track evolution and timing. If that 20% shower threat materializes, it’ll be about being on the right tyre at the right moment. If it doesn’t, managing traffic and track heat will be the bigger test.
– Long runs will punish the impatient. With the surface hovering near the 50°C mark on Sunday, drivers who push too hard early might pay for it later.
– Friday’s FP2 is the wildcard. A 40% chance of rain, alongside the hottest track temps of the day, could muddle race prep and leave a few teams flying a little blind into Saturday.
In short: mostly dry, deceptively tough. Mexico City rarely disappoints, and with thin air and a frying-pan circuit, this one should be all about who can keep their cool when the track can’t.
