McLaren’s title coronation is on hold — for one more week, maybe
Baku knocked some confetti out of the air, but not much. A DNF for Oscar Piastri and only seventh for Lando Norris delayed McLaren’s Constructors’ Championship party, yet the arithmetic still points to an orange celebration under the Singapore lights.
Seventeen rounds into 2025, McLaren sit on 623 points, miles clear of Mercedes on 290 and Ferrari on 286. Red Bull — champions from 2022 to 2024 — are already out of mathematical contention. There are seven grands prix and three sprint races left, and while the spreadsheet says there’s still a path for the chasers, the form book says otherwise.
What McLaren need in Singapore
It’s simple: don’t get hammered on points.
– If McLaren aren’t outscored by Mercedes by 31 points or more, the Silver Arrows are cleared off the chessboard.
– If McLaren aren’t outscored by Ferrari by 35 points or more, Maranello is done too.
Translate that to Sunday finishes and it’s even cleaner: one McLaren in the top five will eliminate Ferrari; one McLaren on the podium will eliminate Mercedes. Given the car Stella’s group has delivered this year — fast everywhere, friendly on tyres, and robust over long runs — that’s hardly a stretch. It would have been wrapped already if not for the Baku stumble.
Inside the garage, there’s no sense of panic. Andrea Stella’s tone hasn’t changed for months, and neither has the team’s approach. Maximise weekends, bank points, avoid self‑inflicted damage. If they stick to that script, the title becomes a formality in Singapore.
The record watch
While the big trophy is all but theirs, there’s still some number-chasing to keep the statisticians busy.
– Earliest title clinch: McLaren can’t beat Red Bull’s 2023 mark, but they can match it if they seal the deal in Singapore — six events to spare.
– Most points in a season: Red Bull’s 860 from 2023 is within range. McLaren are on 623 with 346 still up for grabs, so the theoretical ceiling is 969. On current form — averaging 36.6 points per round — they’re tracking around 879 plus whatever comes from the remaining three sprints. A thousand points, once a fanciful mid-season talking point, looks a stretch.
– Biggest title-winning margin: Red Bull hold the benchmark at 451. McLaren’s current lead is 333. It’s doable, but it demands a relentless run-in.
– Most wins in a season: off the table. The maximum they can reach is 19, two shy of Red Bull’s 21.
– Podium haul: Mercedes’ 33 from 2016 is in play. McLaren have 27 so far with as many as 14 more available.
– One-twos: Mercedes banked 12 in 2015. McLaren have seven. It would require a near‑perfect closing stint, but that’s the sort of target that keeps a dominant team hungry.
The bigger story, though, is how they got here. McLaren haven’t just been quick; they’ve been consistent. Norris and Piastri have traded big results without the inter-team flashpoints that often nibble away at title margins. Strategy calls have been sharp, pit stops mostly bulletproof. And when the car wasn’t the fastest, it still scored heavily. That combination — performance plus low drama — is why the Constructors’ fight feels like a one-team race.
Singapore, of course, brings its own headaches: a narrow street track, high probability of Safety Cars, and the kind of rhythm that punishes even small setup misreads. But the MCL’s low-speed traction and tyre friendliness should travel well. A clean Saturday locks in track position; a tidy Sunday finishes the job.
It’s been 26 years since Woking last lifted the big one. If (when) it comes in Singapore, it won’t just be a title — it’ll be the stamp of a season that turned into a clinic. The only suspense left is how many records they can drag along with it.
