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Norris Ahead—But Verstappen’s Scar Tissue Looms Largest

Damon Hill on the title run-in: “Nothing prepares you” — why Verstappen’s scar tissue could matter most

Three races left, and the 2025 championship finally has a shape. Lando Norris is the man out front, Oscar Piastri has blinked, and Max Verstappen — 49 points back after Brazil — refuses to go away.

That’s the lay of the land after Interlagos, where Norris clean-swept the Sprint and Grand Prix to swing the big punch of the autumn. Verstappen, punted to a pit-lane start after Red Bull changed the RB21’s set-up and bolted in a fresh Honda unit, still found his way to third and another podium. The damage, though, was done: Norris extended what was already a healthy margin, and Piastri’s early-season high ground is now long gone.

It’s a fight rich with storylines. And for 1996 World Champion Damon Hill, one factor towers above the rest as the Las Vegas–Qatar–Abu Dhabi triple-header looms: experience under the heaviest pressure.

“I don’t think anything really prepares you for being in genuine contention,” Hill told the Mirror. “For a long time it’s a dream, then a long shot. When the title becomes a reality, it plays on your mind. Someone like Max, he’s already cleared that first-title hurdle — and that first one can be incredibly distracting.”

It’s hard to argue. Verstappen’s known only one direction since the summer break: forward. He’s been on the podium at every round in that stretch, bagging wins at Monza, Baku and Austin, and somehow finding points on the days Red Bull looked mortal. Brazil was another example of the Dutchman’s refusal to take a bad hand lying down.

McLaren, meanwhile, has been its own weather system. Piastri once stood 34 points to the good and looking ominously serene. That evaporated. Norris, more measured and more ruthless since the break, now has his teammate covered by 24 and Verstappen by 49. The rhythm inside that garage has shifted; it feels as if Norris has located something Piastri’s still searching for on Sundays.

That brings us back to Hill’s point. The final three venues are a wildcard set: the low-grip neon of Las Vegas, a Sprint weekend at Lusail that can turn the championship math on its head in 24 hours, and Abu Dhabi’s familiar decider stage. None are exactly easy to read.

Verstappen isn’t pretending otherwise. Asked in Brazil whether he expects to be competitive everywhere, he shrugged in classic Verstappen style. “No idea. I don’t know. Look at this weekend. Look at Mexico. Then look at the races before. It’s really impossible to know.”

McLaren won’t fear the unknown — their car has worked across a broad range — but this is where the head gets as much of a workout as the right foot. If you haven’t closed a title before, the perimeter of your weekend suddenly bristles with noise: strategy calls feel bigger, traffic feels more personal, and every Safety Car feels like a referendum. Norris has driven like a champion in waiting through the autumn, but the belt is won in November and December, not August. That’s precisely the ground Verstappen knows better than anyone.

There’s also the small matter of arithmetic. With a Sprint in Qatar to follow Vegas, the points buffet is substantial — but the cut is simple for Verstappen: he has to leave Las Vegas within 57 points of the leader, or the defence ends under the Nevada lights. That’s not the way he’ll be framing it, of course. The focus will be on maximising whatever Red Bull rolls out of the truck on Thursday night and keeping McLaren’s orange cars in sight, or better.

So what decides it? A few threads to pull:
– McLaren’s internal balance. If Norris stays clear of intra-team entanglements and Piastri steadies after a yo-yo stretch, Woking can manage this to the flag.
– Red Bull’s baseline. The RB21 has been peaky; if they land a sweet spot at two of the three remaining circuits, Verstappen’s closing speed becomes very real.
– Nerves. Hill’s right: the first time the title feels inevitable, it can spook you. Norris and Piastri are learning on the fly. Verstappen already has the scars and the silverware.

We’ve learned enough this season to avoid certainties. But here’s one: if Norris handles the Vegas hustle with the same composure he showed in São Paulo, he’ll carry a glove over the finish. If he leaves the door open, Verstappen’s the last man you want listening for the hinge.

Las Vegas sets the tone. Then Lusail turns up the heat. Abu Dhabi, as ever, will count the chips.

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