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Orange Shock: Verstappen Fears Zandvoort Fight Just for Top Five

Verstappen plays down Zandvoort chances: “Top five might already be a fight”

Max Verstappen’s home weekends usually come with grandstand expectations and a sea of orange waiting for the inevitable. Not this time. After a muted Friday at Zandvoort, the three-time Dutch GP winner says even making the top five in qualifying could be a stretch.

McLaren set the tone early. Lando Norris topped the times on Friday, and Verstappen ended FP2 in fifth, just under six‑tenths off the McLaren. He was beaten by both MCL60s across the day, with Fernando Alonso slipping his Aston Martin ahead and George Russell keeping Mercedes in the conversation. Lance Stroll’s hefty crash in FP2 interrupted Aston Martin’s program, but on pace alone they looked lively enough to spoil a Red Bull recovery.

Zandvoort hasn’t always been hospitable to anyone not named Verstappen. Since the Dutch GP returned in 2021, he won three straight and turned 2022–23 into home coronations. The streak snapped last year when Norris ran away with it and Red Bull had no answer. On early evidence, 2025 might rhyme with that.

Verstappen sounded resigned rather than rattled after FP2, describing a car he’s been unable to unlock. He and the team tried plenty of setup directions on Friday without shifting the underlying weakness. The headline issue is front grip. At Zandvoort, with its long, loaded corners in the middle sector, that understeer costs lap time and confidence, and there’s no instant fix from the garage overnight. “A massive turnaround” isn’t on his bingo card.

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If qualifying is as tight as the long runs suggest, Red Bull could find themselves in a three‑way fight for second‑row real estate. Helmut Marko pointed to Aston Martin as “surprisingly strong,” put Mercedes broadly on par with Red Bull, and flagged Ferrari as a step off. The harder tyre compounds seemed to suit the RB19B better on longer stints, according to the team, which at least offers a Sunday lifeline if track position can be salvaged on Saturday.

The local context makes the picture starker. Zandvoort rewards commitment and track evolution, but it rarely gifts overtakes. Start near the front or accept a long afternoon staring at a papaya rear wing. That’s doubly true if McLaren continues to control the pace and dictating pit windows. Unless Red Bull finds front-end bite and a cleaner balance through the long corners, Verstappen could be staring at damage limitation rather than a fourth home win procession.

There’s also the bigger scoreboard. Verstappen arrives third in the Drivers’ standings, with a modest buffer over George Russell. Every point counts, but the way Friday unfolded suggested his focus is more survival than spectacle — keep the car in the window, qualify as high as the grip allows, and hope the race stretches into a tyre game where Red Bull’s stronger runs on harder rubber might matter.

Zandvoort’s crowd will bring the noise. McLaren, as it stands, looks set to bring the speed. The champion has flipped plenty of scripts before, but he’s not promising one here. A front-row miracle? Unlikely. A fierce tussle for the second row? That’s the target — and right now, it would feel like a small win.

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