Lawson vs Tsunoda: last laps of a brutal Red Bull audition
It’s Mexico City and the noise is deafening, on track and off. Liam Lawson and Yuki Tsunoda head into the weekend with the same job description and the same problem: convince Red Bull there’s a seat with their name on it for 2026. Both say they’ve done enough. The paddock isn’t so sure.
The backdrop is classic Red Bull: ruthless, results-first, and already buzzing with the next thing. Isack Hadjar is widely tipped for promotion to the senior team alongside Max Verstappen, and that single domino knocks over a lot of careers in a hurry. If Hadjar goes up, Tsunoda comes down. If Tsunoda comes down, he meets Lawson at the door to Racing Bulls — and it looks like there’s only one chair left when the music stops.
Lawson’s story has zig-zagged through 2025. He had a brief run with Red Bull Racing before being shuffled to Racing Bulls, where Hadjar’s punchy form and that standout Zandvoort podium turned heads higher up the food chain. Lawson’s closed the gap, but the impression of momentum belongs to the Frenchman.
Tsunoda’s case is different. He’s had the glare of the big stage, the weight of expectation, and a bruising comparative against Verstappen. The weekends haven’t yielded the podium steps or points tallies that stick in a team boss’s mind, but he argues the arc is bending the right way and his consistency in the second half of the year has carried weight for the team standings.
“I think I’ve done everything I can,” Lawson said on Thursday. “It’s always been performance-based since I joined Red Bull. I’m just going to drive as fast as I can every time I get in the car.” No mystery there — no promises, either.
Tsunoda, typically direct: “It’s the results, right? How much I can support the team in crucial moments and keep scoring. I’m confident in what I’ve done and I’m still improving. The rest is up to them.”
The decision, if you believe Helmut Marko’s latest line, comes “after Mexico.” That’s one race for two careers to change direction. And both drivers know how this works. Tsunoda’s lived through Red Bull’s year-end roulette more times than he’d like; Lawson’s already felt the trapdoor once this season.
Hadjar, for what it’s worth, is trying to stay out of the maelstrom. With his 2026 future believed to be secure somewhere in the Red Bull ecosystem, he’s said he’d rather everyone found out at the end of the year and he’ll just keep pushing. Easy to say when the wind’s at your back.
The other complicating piece is Arvid Lindblad, the wunderkind tipped to step into Racing Bulls next season. If that happens, the Faenza team becomes a one-seat fight between Lawson — who’s been rebuilding after the Red Bull stint — and Tsunoda, who’s racked up years of service and, by his account, finally has a car he can lean on. Two into one doesn’t go.
Red Bull’s hierarchy has been dropping hints for a while. Christian Horner said last December that Lawson’s trajectory carried “more potential,” which partly explains why the Kiwi got his shot over Tsunoda earlier in the year. But potential and delivery aren’t the same thing, and the company line can shift with a single qualifying lap.
Here’s the uncomfortable truth both drivers are wrestling with: there’s enough evidence on both sides of the ledger to argue their corner — and enough holes for the other guy to poke through. Lawson has speed and a cool head when it’s all flowing, but his Red Bull spell left Red Bull-sized questions. Tsunoda’s matured, ironed out some of the rough edges, and quietly added points when the car allowed, but the headline days haven’t arrived.
The stakes are obvious. If Hadjar indeed steps up, there’s one lifeboat at Racing Bulls and the decision becomes less about sentiment and more about ceiling. Who moves the needle in 2026 and beyond? Who can live with the pressure when the walls close in? Who makes the data boys smile on Monday morning?
Marko says “after Mexico.” Sometimes that means after Mexico; sometimes it means when it means. The odds are a call comes quickly. Either way, the audition is almost over. One of Lawson or Tsunoda will have a future to plot. The other will have a winter to answer a question that haunts every driver raised inside this program: what do you do the day after Red Bull says no?
