F1 weather: Sun, speed and skinny wings for Monza
Monza doesn’t always play nice. We’ve had those soaking, chaotic afternoons where the Temple of Speed turns into a high-speed lottery. Not this time. The 2025 Italian Grand Prix weekend is shaping up to be a straight-up, dry run for pure pace – exactly what engineers love and strategists secretly fear.
After a damp blip overnight on Thursday, skies are set to clear and stay that way. Temperatures hover in the mid-to-high 20s, track temps climb into the mid-40s, and rain chances are minimal. In other words: pencil-thin rear wings, minimum drag, and a lot of tow games in qualifying.
What that means for the teams
– Set-up: Expect the grid to trim the cars to the bone on downforce. Stability into Turn 1 will be at a premium, but that’s the Monza trade-off to unlock 350 km/h.
– Tyres and track: A green FP1 after the Thursday sprinkle, then rapid rubbering-in. With track temperatures flirting with 45°C, managing surface overheating while keeping rear traction out of the chicanes will be the balancing act.
– Strategy: On paper, classic Monza – low degradation and long stints. The bigger variable is traffic and the slipstream train. Safety Cars at Turn 1 are always lurking, but the weather won’t be the story.
Session-by-session forecast (local time; UK in brackets)
Friday 5 September – Practice day
– FP1 (13:30; 12:30): Clearing skies after the overnight rain. Air 24°C, track 35–39°C. Light breeze across the circuit; the first laps will be about cleaning the racing line and checking straight-line speed deltas.
– FP2 (17:00; 16:00): A touch warmer. Air 26°C, track 41–44°C. Breeze around 10–20 km/h. That’s proper quali sim territory, with enough heat to stress the rears on traction zones and give braking performance a workout into Rettifilo.
Saturday 6 September – Qualifying day
– FP3 (12:30; 11:30): Sunny and stable. Air 24°C, track 37–41°C, light southerly breeze. Final trims to gear ratios, beam wing choices, and brake ducts.
– Qualifying (16:00; 15:00): Dry and hot. Air 26°C, track peaking around 45°C. This will be tow roulette: teams will choreograph gaps through Parabolica (yes, Alboreto) to time the slipstream without tripping over traffic. Don’t be surprised if someone gets boxed by the pack and loses a banker.
Sunday 7 September – Race
– Lights out (15:00; 14:00): Warmest day of the weekend. Air 27°C, track up to 44°C. Minimal chance of rain. Light gusts 5–15 km/h, nothing that should upset balance, but a whiff of crosswind through Ascari can still nibble at rear grip.
– Race picture: Expect long DRS trains and tough overtakes without a significant delta. Undercut power is limited; overcut only works if you’ve got clean air. The opener into Turn 1 will decide the mood of the afternoon.
Bottom line
The forecast hands everyone a level playing field and a stopwatch. No cloud cover to save tyres, no rain to scramble the order. If you’ve got horsepower and a slippery package, this is your weekend. And with the tifosi stacked to the treeline at Curva Alboreto, anyone in red finding a tow on Saturday will blow the roof off Lombardy.
Rain? Unlikely. Drama? It’s Monza. That part’s guaranteed.
