Azerbaijan GP forecast: grey skies, gusts and a quick Baku
Baku doesn’t need rain to get feisty, and it probably won’t get much of it anyway. Formula 1 returns to the streets of Azerbaijan this weekend with the forecast pointing to a mostly dry event, but with a twist: wind. The FIA’s outlook suggests cloud cover throughout, a splash of possible rain early on, and gusts that could turn qualifying into a high‑wire act between concrete walls.
After moving from its original April slot to mid-September in recent seasons, conditions in Baku feel spring-like again: mild, dry-ish and a bit unpredictable. The drama tends to come regardless of the weather here — just ask Charles Leclerc, who last year had to handle Oscar Piastri chucking it up the inside with a move that sent ripples through the paddock. Expect more of that energy, with or without slicks running through puddles.
Friday: cloud cover, a chance of rain, and the week’s warmest track time
– FP1: 12:30–13:30 local (09:30–10:30 UK)
– FP2: 16:00–17:00 local (13:00–14:00 UK)
The weekend opens under a blanket of cloud and a 40% chance of rain through Friday, per the FIA. Temperatures are set to be the warmest of the event — around 24°C for FP1, easing to 23°C for FP2.
That slight warmth matters in Baku, where getting front tyres switched on for the low-speed stuff can be a chore. If a shower does wander through, expect teams to split programs: some chasing long-run data for a Sunday that looks dry, others banking early qualifying sims in case Saturday turns messy. With 2.2 km of flat-out running on the main straight, any tailwind will juice the speed traps — and push drivers deep into the heavy braking for Turn 1. Brake temps and rear stability will be on every engineer’s notes.
Saturday: possible morning showers, then the wind bites
– FP3: 12:30–13:30 local (09:30–10:30 UK)
– Qualifying: 16:00–17:00 local (13:00–14:00 UK)
There’s a light-to-moderate chance of showers in the morning that could wash away whatever rubber Friday laid down, then improving conditions as the day goes on. The headline is the wind: gusts up to 65 kph are on the cards.
That’s big around here. Crosswinds through the old city section can snap confidence in an instant; a tailwind down the straight becomes a headwind into Turn 3; and the car you had dialed in on Friday can feel like a different machine 24 hours later. With air at 21°C for both FP3 and qualifying, tyre warm-up will be a fine balance — especially on the fronts, where the speed-to-slow corners demand bite without tipping into graining. If the wind picks up, expect tow tactics to be exaggerated in Q3. Baku always rewards a well-time slipstream, and it gets even tastier when drag is a free gift from Mother Nature.
Sunday: dry outlook, moderate gusts, low confidence
– Race: 15:00 local (12:00 UK)
Forecast confidence is still low, but early signs point to a dry Grand Prix with moderate winds around 35 kph and air temperature at 22°C.
In practical terms, that should mean a fairly straightforward tyre picture — watch for slightly longer first stints if teams fancy letting the track come to them, especially if Saturday’s bluster has scattered rubber. The wind will still move braking points and punish anyone greedy on the throttle out of Turns 16 and 1, and it’ll keep pit walls busy reading live gust data. Slipstream trains are always a Baku feature; with stable temps and no rain expected, strategy is likely to hinge on track position and executing the undercut without falling into traffic. Safety Cars remain the ultimate wildcard here, and breezy conditions only push those odds up.
The setup game
Baku’s the classic compromise: low drag for the monster straight, enough downforce to trust the rear through the castle section and the 90-degree corners. This forecast nudges teams toward stability — rear-wing levels that keep the car planted if the wind kicks, and mechanical balance to protect fronts in cooler temps without overloading them. Those who nail that window on Friday will sleep better than most given Saturday’s gusts.
Bottom line
It should be dry. It might get spicy. And in Baku, it’s often the gust you don’t see that ruins your lap. Keep an eye on the flags, the apexes and the radar — in that order.
