McLaren have spent most of 2025 punching the air. Now they’re glancing over their shoulder.
With eight races to run and Max Verstappen back on pole in Baku, Andrea Stella isn’t pretending Monza was a one-off blip that just happened to flatter Red Bull. The McLaren team principal sounded the alarm after qualifying on the streets of Azerbaijan, pointing to Red Bull’s upgraded RB21 and a set-up shift that’s given Verstappen fresh bite at exactly the wrong moment for Woking.
“We’ve reviewed Monza and set our mindset for the final third of the season: Red Bull’s performance shouldn’t be considered a one-off,” Stella said. “They brought a new floor, they seem to be running the car differently, and they may have unlocked performance. Pole and victory at Monza, pole here – they’re a very serious contender for race wins and the Drivers’ Championship.”
It’s not what McLaren wanted to hear after a bruising Saturday. Lando Norris brushed the wall on his last lap and starts seventh. Oscar Piastri, who leads the standings on 324 points, crashed in Q2 and lines up ninth. Verstappen, 96 points behind Piastri, has a clear road into Turn 1. On a track that loves a late Safety Car and feeds on chaos, that gap can shrink in a hurry.
For all the orange confetti this year — McLaren have taken 12 wins from 16 grands prix and are within touching distance of sealing the Constructors’ crown — the Drivers’ title has stayed messy. Piastri heads teammate Norris by 31 points, and the pair have spent months chipping away at each other’s totals while Verstappen lurked. In Baku, the reigning champion has finally been handed a clean sightline.
The worry inside McLaren isn’t only Verstappen’s starting slot. It’s the way Red Bull found pace at Monza and carried it to a very different circuit. The RB21’s new floor, plus a lower, more aggressive running philosophy Verstappen has hinted at, has turned the discussion from “temporary rebound” to “proper resurgence.” Even the satellite car looks switched on here, with Yuki Tsunoda hovering near the sharp end on Saturday — another tell that Red Bull’s concept is happy on low-grip streets as well as high-speed sweeps.
Norris wasn’t sugar-coating it. “I think Red Bull is too quick. They’re just as quick as us, easily,” he said. “They were very fast today. It’s a long race, a lot of opportunities can come our way. It’s not an easy track to overtake on, but it’s still possible. I’ll do my homework tonight and prepare the best I can.”
Piastri, pragmatic as ever, called a win “ambitious” from ninth but expects forward motion. “We can definitely make progress. The car has been quick this weekend and hopefully we can use that to make progress.”
There’s a championship nuance here that McLaren have been careful to avoid saying out loud: when both drivers are in the hunt, race-day calls get harder. Team orders? Unpalatable. Splitting strategies? Likely. But Baku doesn’t do clean scenarios. You don’t pick your moments here — the race hands them to you, usually behind a Safety Car on Lap 42 while half the paddock argues about who should’ve boxed.
That’s where Verstappen’s pole is a problem. If the Red Bull controls the first stint, McLaren will have to decide how aggressive to be with offsets and undercuts from the midfield fringes. Their car has been brilliantly rounded all year, but it’s not bulletproof on hot out-laps in traffic, and Baku’s long drag down the main straight punishes poor exits and lonely engine maps. Get stuck in a DRS train and the laps vanish.
Still, there’s steel in Woking. The MCL38 has been a weapon on Sundays, and both drivers have learned to manage the car’s narrow windows when the track rubbers in. Piastri’s execution under pressure has improved by the week. Norris, for all the frustration after qualifying, has been one of the grid’s slickest overtakers in 2025. If they’re within range after the first pit cycle, Baku tends to pay off the brave.
Verstappen knows it, too. He’s been here before: big deficit, small opening. Red Bull’s floor has brought the car back to him; the confidence in the throttle traces is unmistakable. If Sunday tilts his way, the Drivers’ Championship shifts from comfortable McLaren chess match to a three-way street fight.
McLaren wanted a clear run to the tape. What they’ve got is Baku, a Red Bull that’s woken up, and a champion who smells momentum. The orange wall can still dictate this title — but not from row four.
