Guenther Steiner rarely reaches for a euphemism, and he isn’t starting now. Asked about Lewis Hamilton’s form slump and the sport’s looming rules reset, the former Haas boss called 2026 “make-or-break.” If the next-gen cars don’t click, Steiner said, “then it’s over.”
It’s a stark line about a driver who’s built an empire of numbers: seven world titles, 103 wins, 104 poles. Yet the modern ground-effect era has never looked like Hamilton’s natural habitat. Red Bull and Adrian Newey aced the concept in 2022; Mercedes didn’t, and the damage lingered. Across those three seasons, Hamilton found only two more wins and a single pole. The finger, fairly or not, kept drifting back to the hardware.
The move to Ferrari for 2025 was supposed to change the mood. So far, it hasn’t. Hamilton, 40, is still searching for a first podium in red and sits sixth in the standings, 42 points behind teammate Charles Leclerc. The radio has offered few hiding places: “I’m useless, absolutely useless,” landed hard in Hungary, followed by a barbed aside that Ferrari “probably need to change driver.”
Toto Wolff, Hamilton’s old boss at Mercedes, has long believed the issue is structural as much as psychological. “We never got happy with the ground-effect car, in the same way it affects him,” Wolff said, suggesting driving style and today’s aero loads share some blame.
Which is why 2026 looms so large. Formula 1 will roll out new cars and power units next season, retreating from heavy ground-effect reliance in favor of active aero and simpler floors. On paper, it’s exactly the kind of reset Hamilton’s camp has been waiting for.
Steiner’s view is pragmatic. Maybe Hamilton takes the hit this year, bets on the reset, and sees whether the Ferrari-Hamilton package finally breathes. “But if that doesn’t work either, then it’s over,” he told web.de. Not a dramatic exit, he added—just a measured decision announced in time for Ferrari to plan.
In the shorter term, Steiner’s advice is to stop fighting the car and the noise. Grit your teeth, avoid overdriving, and live with the pace you have. If Leclerc can’t be beaten, stick with him. “The biggest enemy is internal pressure,” Steiner said, noting Hamilton “is trying too much” and needs the looseness to return.
There are still 10 races to shape the narrative of Hamilton’s first year at Ferrari. The résumé buys patience, not immunity. The next reset is coming. If 2026 doesn’t give him the tools, the sport might give him his answer.
