Liam Lawson has spent enough time in Red Bull’s shop window to know how quickly the lighting can change. One month you’re the solution, the next you’re the seat-holder while the next big thing gets lined up behind you. So when Nikola Tsolov’s name started doing the rounds as a possible Racing Bulls replacement for 2027, it felt less like a surprise and more like the usual churn of the Red Bull driver pipeline — with one important caveat: Tsolov isn’t actually ready to be considered “inevitable” yet.
Racing Bulls CEO Peter Bayer has moved to cool the speculation, rejecting the idea that Tsolov is already pencilled in for a Formula 1 drive next season. The timing of the rumour is telling. Lawson has been solid, even quietly impressive, but his Red Bull story has also been messy enough to keep him permanently exposed. He debuted in 2023 as an injury stand-in for Daniel Ricciardo, returned late in 2024 for a six-race audition for the biggest seat of all — Max Verstappen’s team-mate — did enough to earn that 2025 Red Bull Racing drive, and then was dropped back to Racing Bulls after just two races. In this organisation, that kind of “start-stop” history follows you around.
What makes the current noise slightly odd is that Lawson’s 2026 form hasn’t provided much ammunition. After nine Grands Prix he’s scored points seven times, and he’s yet to be beaten by rookie team-mate Arvid Lindblad. Even in the internal math that matters most at Racing Bulls — qualifying execution, race craft, points conversion — Lawson has been doing what the team needs.
And yet, it’s easy to see why the paddock keeps eyeing his seat when rumours start. Red Bull doesn’t just measure a driver against his garage neighbour; it measures him against the next driver coming through the system. And right now Tsolov is making it hard to ignore him.
The 19-year-old is leading the Formula 2 championship after six wins across seven race weekends — the sort of run that forces senior management to at least start planning contingencies. But Bayer’s comments underline the key detail often lost in the “next Verstappen” chatter: Tsolov doesn’t currently have the super licence points required, and the team is having to actively engineer a pathway to get him eligible for meaningful F1 running.
That’s where the practicalities come in. Bayer revealed Racing Bulls is considering putting Tsolov into a TPC (Testing of Previous Cars) programme, partly to build mileage and partly because he needs the correct licensing status to take part in Friday practice sessions.
“We’re currently considering having him do TPC test, because he needs a licence to drive in Friday practice sessions,” Bayer said. “He’s still lacking a few kilometres. And we’re planning that for the autumn.”
The detail matters: this isn’t the language of a team that has already decided it’s swapping one of its race drivers. It’s the language of a team that wants options — and wants to accelerate the preparation of a driver who’s suddenly on the brink of being too good to ignore.
So far, Tsolov’s only taste of F1 machinery has been a demonstration run in Sofia in a Red Bull RB7. That’s great for profile and marketing, but it isn’t the kind of experience that convinces an F1 engineering group a driver can be dropped into a race weekend and perform immediately. If Racing Bulls is serious about him as a near-term candidate, he’ll need proper laps and proper evaluation, not just highlight reels from F2.
Bayer was blunt about where things stand today.
“Those are just rumours,” he said of the idea Tsolov is locked in for 2027. “He’s doing a brilliant job and is a huge talent whom we naturally have on our radar. But we’ve only had seven races so far, and Liam and Arvid are doing just as brilliant a job. So it’s not even on the cards at the moment.”
It’s also worth noting the framing: Bayer didn’t single out Lawson, and he didn’t hint at a vacancy. He put Lawson and Lindblad in the same sentence, protecting both and buying time — exactly what you’d do if your current line-up is functioning and your junior star is still, technically, not eligible.
Lawson, for his part, sounded like a driver trying to keep his head where it needs to be: on performance, not politics. Asked at Silverstone about the speculation and his own future, he brushed it off as something that tends to swell around the summer break — and something he’s learned not to chase.
“It’s honestly not even something I’ve really thought about,” Lawson said. “Obviously, summer breaks will be a time where things are heavily considered, and I think we have a few more races until then.
“At the moment, I’m just focused on continuing to do what we’ve been doing. It’s been obviously working very well recently, and it’d be nice to go into that summer break with another good couple of races… with Formula 1, I haven’t been here that long, but I’ve been here long enough to see how things get stirred up, and it’s not really something I’ve been thinking about.”
That last line lands because it’s true. In Red Bull-land, driver gossip isn’t background noise — it’s part of the ecosystem. But for now, the cold facts are these: Lawson is delivering points and beating his team-mate; Lindblad is holding up his end as a rookie; and Tsolov, for all his F2 momentum, still has administrative and mileage hurdles to clear before he can even be properly assessed in the environment that matters.
The more interesting story, then, isn’t “Tsolov in, Lawson out” — it’s that Racing Bulls is already moving to remove the obstacles that would stop Tsolov being a realistic option. That doesn’t mean a seat is about to open. It does mean the queue is being shortened. And in this programme, everyone knows what that usually leads to.
