McLaren can clinch the Constructors’ title in Baku — here’s the math, and why it would be huge
McLaren rolls into Baku with more than just momentum; it’s carrying a 337-point sledgehammer. With 617 points on the board and Ferrari trailing on 280, the papaya cars can lock up the 2025 Constructors’ Championship in Azerbaijan — with seven races still to go, three of them sprint weekends.
There are 346 points left in play after Sunday. If McLaren’s lead is at least that big when the chequered flag falls, job done. It’d be the team’s second title on the bounce and the 10th in McLaren’s history — putting Woking alone in second on the all-time list behind Ferrari. For a group that had to rebuild its project not so long ago, that’s a statement.
What needs to happen in Baku
– McLaren seals the title if it outscores Ferrari by nine points or more.
– Mercedes must outscore McLaren by at least 12 to keep its faint hopes alive.
– Red Bull has to outscore McLaren by 33 or more to mathematically stay in it.
Ferrari is the key rival here. Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc have kept the Scuderia second, but the arithmetic is brutal: if Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri bag, say, a win and a third, it doesn’t matter what the red cars do — that’s enough to close the book. Even a solid fifth for one McLaren, with no Ferraris in the points, would be sufficient.
Mercedes sits a further 21 points ahead of Red Bull, making the Silver Arrows the more realistic long shot. George Russell and Kimi Antonelli would need a near-perfect afternoon — think one-two — and for McLaren to stumble. Not impossible on a street circuit, but the odds are the odds.
As for Red Bull, the requirement is hefty. To keep the Constructors’ contest alive, Max Verstappen and Yuki Tsunoda need a haul in the region of a double podium — and that scenario assumes McLaren barely scores. Given how relentlessly Norris and Piastri have stacked points this year, that’s a big ask.
Why this matters beyond the trophy
Titles aren’t just about bragging rights. They mean money, bonuses, leverage. F1’s prize pot is weighted to the Constructors’ standings; finish first and you take the biggest slice. It’s a windfall that feeds development, staffing, facilities — the foundations that keep a team at the front. The individuals in papaya have earned it the hard way too, from the calmly efficient race-ops unit you see on Sundays to the folks back at the factory who don’t get TV time.
And there’s history in the air. If McLaren does close it out this weekend, it’ll mark a fourth instance of back-to-back team titles for Woking after the runs in 1984–85, 1988–89 and 1990–91. That’s not just dominance; that’s era-defining stuff.
What happens next
If the Constructors’ is wrapped in Baku, all the oxygen shifts to the drivers’ title — and it stays inside the same garage. Norris vs Piastri has been the season’s central tension without boiling over, a clean fight between two drivers operating at a high level and a team that’s resisted the urge to pick a side. If McLaren can take the team result off the table this early, it frees them to let that duel run to the wire without strategic compromises.
Of course, this is Baku. It rewards patience in one breath and punishes it in the next. Safety cars, strategy pivots, sprint points — the place is built for chaos. You can win a championship on days like that, but you can also lose a lazy handful of points in a blink. McLaren’s margin lets them breathe; it doesn’t let them coast.
Still, when a team shows this much authority over a season, the endgame tends to feel inevitable. Whether the corks pop on Sunday or a week or two later, McLaren’s work across 2025 — from car concept to execution — has earned this moment. Now it’s up to Ferrari, Mercedes and Red Bull to delay the party. And up to Norris and Piastri to decide who gets the bigger bottle when the dust settles.
