Ferrari thought signing Lewis Hamilton would buy it certainty at the sharp end. Instead, it’s created a different sort of problem — the kind that doesn’t show up on a timing screen until it’s too late.
Guenther Steiner has sounded the alarm that Maranello could end up losing Oliver Bearman if it can’t offer him a clear route into a Ferrari seat, and soon. With Bearman’s stock rising and Hamilton holding the keys to his own short-term future, the Scuderia’s succession plan suddenly feels less like a neat timeline and more like a negotiation with the wider market.
Bearman’s trajectory is the uncomfortable part for Ferrari. The 21-year-old’s first full season in Formula 1 last year was uneven — flashes of genuine pace mixed with the kind of errors that remind you he’s still learning at 300km/h. He still managed a standout fourth place at the Mexican Grand Prix, even if his season also included what he himself described as his “stupid mistake”: a heavy pit-entry crash under red flags at Silverstone.
This year, though, the trend line has been harder to dismiss. Bearman scored points in the opening two rounds, including a fifth place in China, then threw away more points in Japan with a crash while fighting in the thick of it. In Miami he narrowly missed out again, finishing 11th. The shape of the season is clear: the pace is there often enough that the missed opportunities sting.
And crucially, he’s looked increasingly in control relative to the benchmark on the other side of the garage. Bearman has been comfortably ahead of the more experienced Esteban Ocon, a dynamic that tends to carry weight in driver-market discussions — particularly when the driver doing the outperforming is also on a development pathway for a top team.
Hamilton, meanwhile, remains the complicating variable. He has scored in every race this season, but has only once outpaced Charles Leclerc. That’s not catastrophic — not by itself, not in year two of a huge career move — but it does sharpen the question Ferrari can’t avoid: how long is Hamilton actually sticking around, and what happens if the answer doesn’t align with Bearman’s patience?
Steiner’s view is that Bearman is already ready for the next step — and that Ferrari can’t assume he’ll wait around for it.
“I think Oliver now is ready to go to a team where he can win races or at least go to the podium,” Steiner said, arguing that the next phase of Bearman’s career requires more than just incremental progress. “He’s had his learning with Haas… but then you need to move on if you want to go to the podium. If you can do it as a driver, you need to have the machine to do that as well.”
That’s the crux. Ferrari’s junior programme only works if it eventually delivers. If Bearman continues to look like a driver who can do more than the car beneath him, someone else will start asking questions — and not politely. In a market that always needs the “next one”, a Ferrari-backed prospect with momentum becomes tempting even for teams that don’t usually shop in Maranello’s academy.
Steiner hinted that Bearman’s contractual situation may reflect that reality. He suggested there could be clauses allowing Bearman to move if a leading team comes calling — a fairly standard safeguard for a prospect with leverage — though he stressed he doesn’t know the details. What matters is the principle: Ferrari can’t just sit on him indefinitely and assume he remains theirs by default.
The irony, of course, is that Ferrari has done this before — and it’s worked when it commits. Steiner pointed to the team’s history of integrating its own, noting how Leclerc and Bearman both took early practice outings with Haas as part of Ferrari’s broader pipeline. The pride Ferrari takes in running “one of their own” is real; the question is whether that pride translates into decisive action when the timing gets awkward.
And right now, the timing is awkward because Hamilton’s future is essentially self-determined. Steiner described Hamilton’s longevity as “a difficult one”, framing it less as a contractual question and more as a personal one: what does Hamilton still want out of this?
Hamilton, Steiner noted, “doesn’t have to prove anything to anybody anymore.” The implication is straightforward — when a seven-time world champion stays, it’s because he still believes there’s something meaningful to win, not because he needs the seat or the salary. Steiner went further, suggesting the moment Hamilton concludes an eighth title in a Ferrari isn’t on, that’s when he’ll walk away — and only then does Bearman’s pathway truly clear.
That is both reassuring and deeply risky if you’re Bearman. Reassuring, because it suggests the Ferrari seat could eventually open. Risky, because “eventually” is a dangerous word in F1 careers. Drivers don’t get their early twenties back, and they don’t always get a second chance at becoming the hot property. If Bearman sees a credible opportunity elsewhere — especially somewhere that offers podium potential sooner — it becomes harder to argue that waiting is the smart play.
Bearman is in the final year of a reported two-year deal with Haas. Hamilton is also in his second season at Ferrari, but is said to have an option for 2027 that only he can trigger. Put those timelines together and Ferrari’s problem becomes obvious: it may need to make a Bearman decision before it has a Hamilton decision.
This is where Ferrari’s famed patience can become a flaw. It can’t afford to treat Bearman like a reserve asset while the front-line picture sorts itself out. If the team truly believes he’s the long-term answer — and Steiner’s comments suggest plenty in the paddock do — then Ferrari has to start acting like it.
Because if it doesn’t, someone else will. And the hardest thing to explain later isn’t why you promoted a young driver a year early. It’s why you spent years building one, only to watch him win elsewhere.
