Red Bull’s driver market has a habit of moving fast when it senses vulnerability, and right now the paddock can smell it. With Max Verstappen’s long-term future suddenly being discussed in far louder tones — McLaren the most persistent destination in the post-Silverstone whisper chain — the inevitable next question is who Red Bull would actually put in that car if the unthinkable becomes real.
One name now being openly floated in F1 circles is Oliver Bearman.
It’s not difficult to see why. Bearman has looked every inch a proper grand prix driver since arriving with Haas, carrying the sort of composure that usually takes a season or two to grow. He’s quick, he’s technically switched on, and he doesn’t come across as somebody who needs a perfect environment to deliver. In other words, he’s the kind of profile teams start tracking seriously when the driver carousel begins to creak.
Sky F1’s David Croft has gone a step further, suggesting Red Bull are “keeping very close tabs” on the Ferrari-backed 21-year-old. The line that will make people in Maranello and Milton Keynes both sit up is the personal connection: Laurent Mekies, now running Red Bull, was the man who signed Bearman to the Ferrari Driver Academy. In this sport, relationships don’t guarantee deals — but they do open doors that stay shut for others.
And Bearman’s door at Ferrari? It suddenly looks a lot heavier.
Martin Brundle’s read is blunt: with Charles Leclerc re-committing to Ferrari and Lewis Hamilton enjoying what’s being described as a resurgence — enough to reignite talk of a genuine title push — Bearman’s clearest pathway to the Scuderia’s race seats has narrowed to a sliver. Brundle summed it up from Bearman’s perspective: Leclerc is locked in, Hamilton looks like he could be around “for quite a few years”, and that combination can leave a young driver treading water even while performing.
That’s not just a Ferrari problem, either. Haas has started 2026 brightly but hasn’t kept that early momentum in the development race, and the team is now on a three-race run without scoring. For a driver trying to build the sort of case that forces top teams to make uncomfortable decisions, dry spells like that can be a nuisance — not because it erases what you’re doing in the car, but because the sport has an unforgiving habit of only noticing what’s on the timing screen.
Brundle’s point was that Bearman is doing his bit regardless, “driving beautifully”, and that it’s created a little pressure on team-mate Esteban Ocon. But he also described Bearman as “a little bit locked in” — the phrase you often hear used for talented juniors who are performing well yet don’t have an obvious next rung to climb.
That’s where Red Bull comes in, and why this specific rumour has legs beyond the usual mid-season noise.
If Verstappen genuinely became available, Red Bull would be looking at more than outright pace. It would be looking for someone who can survive the weight of that seat: the scrutiny, the expectation, the politics, the demand to deliver immediately in a team built around winning. The obvious idea being thrown around is a straight swap involving Oscar Piastri, but that’s a very different kind of recruitment — a proven front-runner, with all the contractual and competitive complications that brings.
Bearman, by contrast, is the sort of option that fits Red Bull’s traditional logic: identify a driver on the rise before the price becomes astronomical, then back yourself to finish the job. The twist is that Bearman isn’t “their” product. He’s Ferrari’s. And if Red Bull did move in that direction, it would be a sharp message to the grid that it’s willing to poach from rival pipelines, not just promote from within.
Jenson Button, speaking about Bearman’s situation, struck the more managerial note: the key for the driver is “staying focused”, but for the people around him, it’s time to start talking to other teams and other possibilities — because there’s a real risk of getting stuck if Hamilton decides to keep performing at a level that makes Ferrari unwilling to change anything.
Bearman, for his part, has tried to keep the temperature down. He’s been clear that he’s not working to a fixed timetable and that he’s not losing sleep over the Ferrari question. What he has acknowledged is that the contract landscape toward the end of 2026 matters, because it’s when expiring deals and the established 2026 pecking order will shape what 2027 looks like. The subtext is obvious: the second-year of these regulations will be when teams start placing bigger bets, and smart drivers want to be in the right shop window when that happens.
For Red Bull, the interesting part is how quickly a Verstappen rumour has expanded into a broader audit of the market. That’s usually how it starts. A team isn’t “replacing” its star driver until it has to — but it absolutely prepares, and it quietly collects options long before the public hears a word.
Bearman being one of those options doesn’t mean Red Bull has made its mind up about Verstappen, or that Ferrari has lost control of its own junior. It does, however, tell you where the pressure points are forming: a potential shake-up at the very top, a young driver with momentum but a narrowing route to his intended destination, and a Red Bull management structure that understands better than most how quickly the driver market can turn from distant speculation into tomorrow morning’s problem.
In 2026, that’s enough for a paddock rumour to become something teams have to answer — even if only behind closed doors.
